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Cost of Iraq Invasion Severly Underestimated;
Tens of Billions Have Been Ignored
Administration needs to release information on how to
fund war, says group
Washington, D.C. - Cost estimates on the potential invasion and occupation
of Iraq are alarmingly low and ignore major costs to taxpayers,
says Taxpayers for Common Sense, a national budget watchdog
organization.
“The
cost of ‘regime change’ will be in the hundreds
of billions of dollars,” said Nate Heasley, Program Director
at Taxpayers for Common Sense. “With this new information
about increased costs for the war, the Bush administration
needs to immediately disclose their plan to pay for it.”
With
a federal deficit expected to top $200 billion next year,
the administration has some hard choices to make. News stories
have reported that there could potentially be a 10% reduction
in spending for some government agencies to help pay for the
war.
“With
no other country currently willing to pay a dime for this
war, it could have major implications on spending at home.
Efforts to save social security, pay for prescription drug
benefits and education initiatives, and to increase domestic
security will be severely affected,” continued Heasley.
If
the Bush administration determines an Iraq invasion is necessary,
it should only do so with both the diplomatic and financial
support of allies, including those in the region that stand
to benefit from Saddam Hussein’s removal. “The administration
has to make it a priority to find other countries to share
this financial burden or it will leave the United States in
a financially and militarily vulnerable position at the same
time as we are trying to win a war on terrorism,” stated
Heasley.
The
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and others have estimated
that invading and occupying Iraq would cost between $40 billion
and $200 billion. However, those figures do not realistically
estimate the costs of deploying troops, prosecuting a war
with Iraq, or the subsequent occupation of Iraq that many
analysts suggest will be necessary to provide stability in
the region. An Iraq war is likely to cost tens of billions
more than the $200 billion estimate provided by President
Bush’s lead economic advisor, Lawrence Lindsey.
The
CBO underestimated or failed to include the costs of several
important factors in their calculations:
Reservists/Troop Costs
This week the administration called for 265,000 reservists
to be activated in preparation for a new invasion of Iraq.
However, the CBO estimated that under a “heavy ground”
invasion of Iraq, a total of 170,000 reservists would be necessary.
100,000 of those would be called to active combat duty, while
another 70,000 would be needed to fill domestic positions
left vacant by active duty personnel participating in the
invasion.
Considering
an increase of close to 100,000 reservists, the CBO estimate
is extraordinarily low. Calling up 265,000 reservists would
cost approximately $1 billion per month, If the projected
invasion requires the generally accepted estimate of 3 months
of build-up, 3 months of war, and 3 months of redeployment,
the total cost of reserve troops would then be $9 billion.
The
CBO also underestimated the cost of active troop deployment
by failing to account for the baseline costs associated with
the deployment of 270,000 active troops. Those baseline costs
are roughly $2.8 billion per month of deployment. Over the
course of a 9 month operation, that amounts to $25.3 billion.
Additionally,
the cost of deploying the heavy ground troops, combat hazard
pay, and other expenses associated with moving both the 270,000
active and at least 100,000 reserve troops to the region amount
to an additional $38 billion over the course of the war, excluding
operating support and fuel. The total cost of troop deployment
alone for an invasion of Iraq would be an additional $59.6
billion, for a total troop deployment cost of almost $100
billion.
Veterans Benefits
During the Gulf War, the United States suffered casualties.
Not only were more than 100 servicemen and women killed in
action, but a much greater number appear to have been exposed
to chemical or biological agents causing a host of symptoms
collectively called “Gulf War Syndrome.” Thousands
of servicemen and women have suffered. Our servicemen and
women deserve the best medical treatment (and probably more)
that this country can provide, but it comes at a cost; with
over 100,000 servicemen and women from the Gulf War alone
on disability benefits, the cost of treating the Gulf War
Syndrome is more than $2 billion a year.
In
a new invasion of Iraq, the United States would likely suffer
similar if not greater losses. According to many analysts,
because of the desperation of Saddam Hussein to retain power,
there is a greater likelihood that Iraq will use chemical
or biological weapons. Even fighting a lost war, Hussein will
likely exact as much revenge as possible. If similar casualties
are incurred, the subsequent benefits for servicemen and women
after the new invasion of Iraq could likely approach $100
billion over a 50-year span.
Occupation
Occupation forces will be necessary to transition Iraq from
the oppressive dictatorship of Saddam Hussein. Given our recent
experiences in Afghanistan, and Bosnia/Kosovo, the occupying
force will likely be about 100,000 troops. At an annual cost
of $220,000 to deploy and support each peacekeeper, the cost
of the first year of occupation would be $18-$22 billion.
Over a likely five-year occupation, during which time the
number of forces necessary could drop to 50,000, occupying
Iraq and stabilizing the region could be at least $50 billion.
Cost
estimates are crucial to providing the public the ability
to consider the level of investment that will be needed for
this military action.
“Taxpayers
shouldn’t be forced to write a blank check for a war
on Iraq. We deserve to know what sacrifices we will need to
make at home in order to fund the war. It is vital that we
are provided accurate cost estimates, but based on our initial
research, this war is likely to cost tens of billions more
than has been advertised,” concluded Heasley.
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Wastebasket Vol. VII No.38: Weighing the Costs of Invasion