The Trump administration has announced a $12 billion agricultural bailout package amid trade wars that are squeezing American farmers—a familiar scenario from the first Trump administration. TCS Director of Research and Policy Josh Sewell joins host Steve Ellis to break down the “Farmers to Family Bridge Aid” package, examining who receives payments, what’s actually in the relief, and whether a one-time check provides real certainty.

Transcript

Announcer (00:02):

Welcome to Budget Watchdog All Federal, the podcast dedicated to making sense of the budget spending and tax issues facing the nation. Cut through the partisan rhetoric and talking points for the facts about what’s being talked about, bandied about and pushed to Washington, brought to you by taxpayers for common sense. And now the host of Budget. Watchdog AF TCS President Steve Ellis.

Steve Ellis (00:40):

Welcome to All American Taxpayers Seeking Common Sense. You’ve made it to the right place for 30 years. TCS that’s taxpayers for common sense, has served as an independent nonpartisan budget watchdog group based in Washington DC We believe in fiscal policy for America that is based on facts. We believe in transparency and accountability because no matter where you are on the political spectrum, no one wants to see their tax dollars wasted. It’s December, 2025 and we’re closing out a tumultuous year with a familiar story. Just as we saw in the first Trump administration, trade wars have squeezed American farmers and once again, uncle Sam is opening his checkbook. This week the Trump administration unveiled a $12 billion bailout package for farmers. So to break down what’s in this so-called farmers to family bridge aid, I’ve got Mr. Agriculture himself, TC S’s own director of Research and policy. Josh Sewell back with us. Josh, welcome back.

Josh Sewell (01:37):

Happy to have an egg podcast.

Steve Ellis (01:39):

You got it Josh. Early Christmas present. So back in March, we talked about your trip to the Commodity Classic where you said farmers were anxious about the unpredictable policy environment. Well, here we are, nine months later, the trade war happened and is ongoing. China stopped buying our soybeans and now we have this $12 billion bailout. Did you see this coming?

Josh Sewell (02:01):

Yes, we saw this coming. This is really just a sequel of the first Trump administration and like most sequels, Terminator two, notwithstanding it’s worse than the first

Movie Clip (02:11):

Stay here. I’ll be back.

(02:13):

Hey, don’t sleep on Godfather two. It won an Oscar for best picture.

(02:17):

I know it was you, Fredo,

(02:19):

but I get your point.

(02:20):

Let’s break down what’s actually in this package. The administration is calling it Farmers to Family Bridge Aid. What exactly are farmers getting? Probably not a bridge.

Josh Sewell (02:31):

No, not at all. But immediately it’s $11 billion for farmers that planted any of a number of row crops. So in USDA programs, these are known as commodities and normal people talk. We’re talking corn, cotton, soybeans, rice, and about 20 other bulk commodities If it comes out of the ground and you can buy a future contract on the Chicago Board of Trade. Yeah, it’s covered but not frozen. Concentrated orange juice.

Movie Clip (02:56):

Ladies and gentlemen, the orange crop estimates for the next year, the cold winter has apparently not affected the Orange Harvest fco. I just learned how that acronym was pronounced in the book I’m reading Frostbite, how Refrigeration Changed Our Food, our Planet, and Ourselves. It’s by Nicole Tuller. Great read

Josh Sewell (03:18):

Sounds a little nerdy.

Steve Ellis (03:19):

Hey, don’t knock it. Before reading that book, the only time I thought of was when Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd manipulated the futures market for it in the movie Trading Places.

(03:27):

Looking good. Billy Ray, feeling good Lewis.

(03:32):

That’s what I was thinking of.

(03:35):

Alright, so I digress, but let’s get back to the math. Last time I checked 12 minus 11 equals one. So where’s the remaining billion dollars going?

Josh Sewell (03:46):

So that is a set aside for everything else. Fruits, vegetables, tree nuts, things like that. And honestly, maybe frozen, concentrated orange juice. We honestly just don’t know yet.

Steve Ellis (03:56):

So really the stuff we actually eat. So then who’s eligible for the $11 billion payments? How does a farmer know if they’re going to get a check?

Josh Sewell (04:05):

So send in your crop acreage reporting form by 5:00 PM Eastern on December 19th, and you should expect a payment no later than February 28th. Dunno how much, but US State will figure that out.

Steve Ellis (04:16):

As you point out, the administration says these payments will sprout in each farmer’s account by the end of February. That seems like a pretty tight turnaround. What’s the timeline looking for farmers who need this money?

Josh Sewell (04:27):

The Ag Secretary is using the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act authority to send these funds and as budget watchdog AF Faithful know this is an authority the secretary has to send funds without having to go through Congress. And I could talk literally for hours on this. I did to some people yesterday, but read the December 12 wastebasket for a taste. We’ll also have links to past products and some fact sheets I’ve done on this. The bottom line, if you planted soybeans or cotton, you’re good. Everybody else, it’s a waiting game.

Steve Ellis (05:00):

Nice cross promotion of TCS products. Now, agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, who as we’ve mentioned you saw at the Quantity Classic earlier this year, set at the White House round table that this relief will provide much needed certainty to farmers and she all but promised to use a t-shirt cannon to send money to farmers. But in reality, Josh is a one-time payment really providing certainty.

Josh Sewell (05:25):

Absolutely not. It’s the opposite. So there is no guarantee of future payments at best. This is a bandaid.

Steve Ellis (05:33):

President Trump made an interesting comment during that White House round table. He said this bailout quote would not be possible without tariffs. That’s even for him. That’s a fascinating bit of circular logic. We’re using tariff revenue to compensate farmers hurt by our own tariffs. What’s your take on that

Josh Sewell (05:53):

Baloney, which also not eligible for payments is the nicest way to respond. Tariffs are one of the biggest drivers of costs for farmers right now. We import almost all of our potash, which is a fertilizer. Steel goes into tractors, seeds, many of them come from foreign countries. Plus the money for this bailout for this assistance if you want to be generous comes from the treasury. It’s not from some tariff fund set aside

Steve Ellis (06:21):

And besides the tariffs are going to or has been promised by the president to go $2,000 checks to Americans, it’s also reducing our $38 trillion debt, which is obviously it’s just a drop in the ocean for that. So he’s promised them every which way, just as an excuse to have his tariffs. But again, I digress. So Josh China is apparently committed to buying more than $40 billion in American soybeans and President Trump set at the round table. He thinks China will buy even more than promised. But the Wall Street Journal reports China has only purchased about 20% of what had agreed to buy this year. Should farmers be counting on these Chinese purchases?

Josh Sewell (07:03):

Not if they are made from the end of a tariff loaded gun. China made a lot of promises in 2019 the first time we had this dance, but their actions spoke louder than those words. They also are known for the long game and so they will do whatever it takes to wait out this administration knowing that in our democracy there is an end to every administration.

Steve Ellis (07:23):

Absolutely. Josh, you and I have talked about this before, but it bears repeating. During the first Trump administration, the government sent about 23 billion to farmers to compensate for the trade war losses going on. Then now we’re looking at another 12 billion and back in March when we talked, you mentioned there was a $30.8 billion emergency agriculture package in December. So we’re talking about massive amounts of taxpayer money flowing to the agriculture sector just in the last year. Put this all in perspective for us.

Josh Sewell (07:54):

Yeah, the numbers, they are just astounding. Lawmakers basically doubled the cost of the farm bill programs, which go into effect October 1st of next year as part of the oba, the reconciliation bill that they passed. We also see emergency aid appropriated every single year since 2017. And these farm interest groups already are in fact demanding more than the latest $12 billion from the CCC bailout. So farmers, they’re frankly, they’re on a path to subsidy dependence and it’s not fiscally sustainable for taxpayers or for the farmers themselves.

Steve Ellis (08:31):

The American Farm Bureau of Federation sent letters to President Trump and to Congress saying more than half of the US farms are losing money, forcing families to rely on off-farm income just to survive. That sounds dire, but we’ve also talked about how agriculture is becoming increasingly corporate and consolidated. Who’s really hurting here and who’s benefiting from these bailouts?

Josh Sewell (08:52):

So this is where we got to point out that numbers can deceiving. There’s also the issue of bankruptcies, which are in fact skyrocketing up. I think it’s 60% in some areas already in this year, but that’s from a really low number. So 100 bankruptcies out of 2 million farmers, it isn’t actually a huge increase. And a lot of those 2 million farms are people for whom farming is in fact a side hustle. And again, thousands of them are non-farmers shielding income. So we have to be a little careful about looking at numbers and understanding them in context, not trying to discount that there is suffering and in some areas, but got to be a little careful about dire straits and just evaluating this. And the off-farm income thing too is almost every farm has off-farm income just as every small business typically has also income from somewhere else. A lot of two in our household. So it gets complicated. We could do another podcast all on it, but we’ve got to be a little bit careful here.

Steve Ellis (09:52):

So what about the real farmers, those that need the money or are primarily making their money from farming?

Josh Sewell (09:58):

Sure. The $11 billion is only going to the ones growing certain things. Remember that’s really important here. So others are getting little to nothing. And on the out so far, our specialty crops, so that’s livestock as well. And probably dairy, which is a huge part of our ag sector. It kind of depends because it’s always fluid with dairy. But the gist is the government will create winners and losers in this program. The government will create winners and losers in this program. And that’s the real problem with the surge in bankruptcies. A big contributing factor is the trade war and this round of payments won’t fundamentally change any of that for next year and the year after.

Steve Ellis (10:42):

Don’t think I didn’t see what you did with fluid and dairy. Alright. Secretary Rollins said at the round table that farmers are facing a crisis that we inherited that most of these farmers have not seen in their lifetime. But Josh didn’t We also talk about how the farm economy was already struggling before President Trump took office. What exactly did they inherit versus what did they create

Josh Sewell (11:06):

Lower than desired prices and higher than wanted? Input costs have been a challenge for years. That is true. Some of that is hangover from the pandemic still, but massive and ever-changing tariffs are now the biggest obstacle to progress on both of these, both prices and inputs. So blame games don’t improve conditions, especially now that we are almost one year into a new administration, it’s time to own the economy.

Steve Ellis (11:34):

Yeah, we’ve seen that across the board that there is a blame Biden and it’s just getting kind of tired because they’ve been in office for almost a year and clearly they’ve made major policy changes. And so the idea that it’s all Biden’s fault, and I’m not saying that things were rosy before, but it’s getting kind of tired. So Josh Farmer trade groups like the American Soybean Association have praised this bailout. The A SA president called it a perfect storm of low crop prices, high production costs and loss of trade markets. But when we talked in March, you said farmers at the Commodity Classic told you they don’t want handouts, they want stable trade policies in markets. What are you hearing from farmers about this bailout?

Josh Sewell (12:20):

Well, a mix of begrudging acceptance and more often silence. Frankly, it’s hard not to be cynical about this. There is real financial pain for many producers, many farmers and ranchers, but it’s exacerbated by policy choices we’re making. These aren’t things that are naturally occurring. The policy that we have now in the trade war, it’s a choice. And at some point actions from farmers are more important than words.

Steve Ellis (12:51):

Looking at the big picture here, Josh, we’ve now seen two rounds of major agricultural bailouts under Trump administrations as the result of trade wars. News media has been reporting that China has been working to diversify away from American agricultural imports, investing heavily in places like Brazil. We also saw that at the same time US taxpayers were providing a bailout loan for Argentina. Buenos RA sold billions of dollars worth of soybeans to China. Are we permanently losing market share and what’s the long-term cost of this approach?

Josh Sewell (13:25):

Well, that permanent loss, it’s a real risk. So relying on federal subsidies is just not viable long-term. That’s not a good business plan and that’s not an academic analysis from me. That’s what I’ve learned from farmers who stayed in business the 15 years I’ve worked in this space, some of them for 30 years or more before I started working on this. And frankly, once trading routes change, they tend to stay changed. We learned that lesson in the first Trump administration. It took five years for us to get back to the same level of soybean exports as had been in place before the trade war started under the Trump administration five whole years. So now it’s time for the hard work of getting better policies so people can prosper according to how they navigate the market, not the halls of Congress. And that’s not going to come just from us. That’s going to come from those farmers doing more than just talking about not wanting bailouts and putting some power behind their political actions.

Steve Ellis (14:18):

Last thing, Josh, when we talked in March, you mentioned that in some states like North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Texas, farmers make more money from crop insurance payouts than they pay in premiums. Now we’re adding another layer of direct payments on top of that. Are we creating a system where government support is becoming a permanent feature rather than a safety net?

Josh Sewell (14:41):

Oh, it’s already here. So there are elements in agriculture and Congress who want to make it a no loss industry. Actually, it’s more than that. They want taxpayers to foot the bill for guaranteed profitability no matter what. And thankfully that’s not the view of a majority of farmers. So we just have to continue reaching out to work with those who want a safety net that increases opportunity, not merely income. And you know me. Alright, well, TCS will I’m ever the optimist and despite this most recent bailout, still am

Steve Ellis (15:16):

Josh Sewell. Mr. Agriculture, thank you for helping us make sense of this latest bailout as we close out 2025. As nonsensical as it actually is.

Josh Sewell (15:25):

Yeah, happy to do it. And I look forward to a

Steve Ellis (15:27):

Improved 2026 here. Here. Well, there you have at podcast listeners your tax dollars at work. This is the frequency market on your dial, subscribe and share and know this taxpayers for common sense has your back America. We read the bills, monitor the earmarks, and highlight those wasteful programs that poorly spend our money and shift long-term risk to taxpayers. We’ll be back with a new episode soon. I hope you’ll meet us right here to learn more.