Statement from Steve Ellis, president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, on Senate Budget Reconciliation and CBO Analysis
As the Senate continues to slog through its budget reconciliation process, the fiscal outlook for the House-passed “One Big Beautiful Bill” has become even more troubling. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) just released its updated dynamic estimate, which takes into account the macroeconomic effects of the legislation. While increased economic activity would generate some additional tax receipts, it would not be enough to offset the overall decrease in revenues and spending cuts. The net result is a significant increase in primary deficits.
According to the CBO, the legislation would ultimately drive up interest rates and increase debt service payments—costs that will be borne by taxpayers. Under conventional scoring, the bill was already projected to add $2.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. The updated dynamic score is even worse, with the bill now estimated to increase the debt by $2.8 trillion. By 2034, debt held by the public would rise to $3.3 trillion above the CBO’s January 2025 baseline, reaching 124 percent of gross domestic product.
While the Senate’s version of the bill is still being negotiated, early indications suggest that it could make only modest changes to the House package. The Senate’s budget instructions, on paper, are more restrained, but procedural maneuvers and overlapping committee instructions could allow for even greater increases in deficits, potentially as much as $5.7 trillion over ten years under conventional scoring, depending on the final deal.
Taxpayers for Common Sense urges lawmakers in both chambers to take these warnings seriously. The growing debt and rising interest costs are not just numbers on a page—they represent future obligations that will crowd out other priorities and burden taxpayers for years to come. Congress must focus on real, sustainable solutions that protect taxpayer dollars and put the nation’s finances on a more responsible path.
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Taxpayers for Common Sense is a nonpartisan budget watchdog calling out wasteful spending and advocating for transparency.
