The seeds of this springtime spending showdown were sown nearly a year ago when the 111th Congress failed to agree on a budget resolution. Sure the fate was cemented when the then-majority Democrats didn’t get a single one of the twelve annual spending bills to the President’s desk. But we already knew a rocky appropriations season was coming when neither chamber approved an over-arching budget to govern spending decisions.

The budget resolution is sort of the Potemkin village of legislation. When the Budget Committee Chairman rolls it out, they can point to all the things it will do, cuts here, mandatory spending changes there, plans for the future. But in reality it is just the frame of the budget building. Sure the Chairman has vision of how it’s going to be built out, but all he can do is hand his plans over to someone else and watch what they do, perhaps cajoling and urging them to realize his vision.

Witness the $30 billion worth of cuts to mandatory agriculture spending. Budget Committee Chairman Ryan directed it come from direct payments and crop insurance (yeehaw!). House Agriculture Committee Chairman Lucas was pretty candid that those suggestions would be heading for the round file, “As for the policy suggestions that Chairman Ryan [used] to reach the numbers they put in their budgets, they are simply suggestions.”

Other provisions in the proposed budget resolution would cut the individual top and corporate tax rates to 25%. Chairman Ryan directed the lost revenue be made up by eliminating wasteful and economically distorting tax expenditures (breaks). Which of the estimated $1.1 trillion worth should be on the chopping block? That’s up to the Ways & Means (tax-writing) committee.

Assumptions also play a lot into the viability of the budget. You can make a rosy economic recovery a self-fulfilling prophecy – at least on paper – by projecting that your wonderful budget will make the economy grow rapidly, driving up economic activity and driving down unemployment. Then the out-budget years will be flush with additional tax revenue and there will be less reliance on government social safety nets. While all of us in America would like to see unemployment at less than 4% in five years, considering that economists think a rate of 5% represents full employment and the current recovery is merely ambling along, that seems a bit Pollyanna-ish, at least in responsible budgeting.

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But to twist a phrase, we came here not to bury budget resolutions, but to praise them. Framing a house, and having plans are pretty darn critical to actually getting a house built. And the budget resolution is critical to getting the government’s fiscal house in order. So while the budget resolution doesn’t have all the teeth and substance that it might appear to, it doesn’t mean it’s unimportant.

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Beyond that, even if you can’t affect change in the out years, there is important symbolism in what is said and not said in the budget. Chairman Ryan essentially ignored cutting defense spending –the second largest spending area after Social Security (which itself is only slated for future discussion in the budget). That’s not responsible. But he did tackle Medicare (and Medicaid). And even though he put off changing anything for anybody until after 2022, it is still significant that he grabbed that third rail.

We cannot step back from the budgetary abyss unless we look at discretionary spending, including defense, entitlements like Medicare, and tax expenditures. All told, even with its flaws, Chairman Ryan deserves credit for putting forward a serious budget. But now the real work begins. Chairman Ryan has to sit down with Senate Budget Committee Chairman Conrad (D-ND)(who wasn’t a fan of the House budget) and hammer out a responsible proposal that moves the country down the track to fiscal responsibility.

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TCS Quote of the Week:

“Our bill is simple: If we cannot do our work and keep the government functioning, we should not receive a paycheck. If we cannot compromise and meet each other halfway, then we should not be paid.”

– A letter to House Speaker John Boehner from 21 Senate Democrats who requested a meeting to discuss Senate bill S. 388, which would prevent lawmakers and the president from getting paid during a shutdown. Letter

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