The full effect of those declines won’t be felt right away, according to Taxpayers For Common Sense. The OBBBA’s reduced royalty rate is only for new onshore and offshore leases which will take years to enter production. Still, every new lease signed under these terms locks taxpayers into reduced returns for decades, and the group predicts onshore leases sold since July 4, 2025, could cost taxpayers about $367 million in foregone revenue over their lifetime.