Now that the final ballots have come in, it’s time to assess the impact the midterms will have on the Congressional committees that determine defense policy. Like everything else in this game-changing election, the answers are dramatic.

Of the House Armed Services Committee’s 62 members, some 25 percent will be gone when the dust settles. Of the 37 Democrats on the committee, nine lost their seats, including Chairman Ike Skelton (MO) and the second-highest ranking Democrat, John Spratt (SC). The third-ranking Democrat on the committee, Solomon Ortiz of Texas, is headed for a loss, as is Rick Larsen (WA). Three other Democrats—Neil Abercrombie (HI), Vic Snyder (AK) and Brad Ellsworth (IN)—retired or sought higher office. By contrast, only two of the 25 Republicans will be gone: Mary Fallin will be the next governor of Oklahoma and Charles Djou (HI) lost. The Senate Armed Services committee saw similar proportions: Four of sixteen Democrats are leaving (all retirements or departing placeholders), compared with just one of the 12 Republicans.

In the Defense Appropriations Subcommittees, which get first whack at the Defense Department spending bill, two of ten Democrats—Carolyn Cheeks Kirkpatrick (MI) and Allen Boyd (FL)—were squeezed out on the House side, while the six Republicans lost just one of their own, Todd Tiahrt (KS). In the Senate, two retirements—Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and Judd Gregg (R-NH)—compounded the election primary losses of Robert Bennett (R-UT) and Arlen Specter (D-PA).

What does this mean for defense decisions over the next two years? While some may think a Republican majority means bigger defense budgets, winning candidates rode to victory in this election by decrying big spending, big government and big corporations. At more than $700 billion dollars and nearly 56 percent of discretionary spending, the Defense Department’s annual budget would appear a shoo-in for their scrutiny. In fact, 63 percent of respondents to a CNBC poll this week said they favored cuts to the defense budget over social security or Medicare. But HASC senior Republican Buck McKeon (CA) released a statement today indicating he wants the defense budget to keep growing at an even greater rate than the Defense Department’s request. “Our citizens have spoken,” McKeon said. True, but they're not speaking his language. Time to listen up.

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