(NOTE: Updated to clarify differences between baseline assuming Administration’s fiscal policies and budget proposal)
Baseline estimates in the President’s Budget Request put net interest – the amount spent every year to service the federal debt – growing from $364 billion in FY2019 to $859 billion in FY2028.
Starting in FY2025, net interest will exceed non-defense discretionary spending and exceed defense spending a year later. By the FY2028, net interest will $64 billion more than defense spending.
The proposed budget doesn’t make things much brighter. In FY2028 net interest will be $761 billion, just $22 billion shy of the defense total. And that takes into account all sorts of specious deficit reduction measures.