Drilling in the Arctic Refuge: A Bad Deal

The push to drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge has long been justified by promises of major federal revenue. But history—and math—tell a different story. Arctic drilling is a speculative gamble that puts taxpayer dollars and public lands at risk.

Beyond the financial shortfall, proposed leasing threatens the region’s thriving outdoor recreation economy—a sector that supports local communities and generates billions in economic activity. The two pieces below—a recent column and a detailed TCS report—lay out the real costs to taxpayers and the broader economic implications of Arctic drilling.

Op-Ed: “Stop Gambling Taxpayer Dollars on Arctic Drilling Delusions”

By Steve Ellis and Patrick Berry, published in The Hill

The numbers don’t lie: Arctic drilling has failed to deliver for taxpayers. The first lease sale in 2021 raised just $16.5 million—almost entirely from a state-backed entity at the minimum bid. The second sale, in 2025, drew zero bids. Meanwhile, the outdoor recreation industry in Alaska—anchored in part by the Arctic Refuge—generates more than $3 billion annually and supports 6% of the state’s jobs. This op-ed argues that relying on Arctic Refuge lease revenues to fund tax cuts isn’t just fiscally reckless—it threatens a sustainable, job-creating sector and irreplaceable public lands.

Read the full op-ed →

Report: “Learning from Past Mistakes: Arctic Refuge Leasing Is Not a Reliable Revenue Offset”

By Taxpayers for Common Sense

This in-depth analysis dismantles the myth that Arctic Refuge drilling can deliver meaningful returns for the federal budget. Drawing on two decades of lease data from Alaska’s North Slope, the report finds that future sales in the Arctic Refuge would likely generate just $3 to $30 million—nowhere near the billion-dollar claims used to justify opening the area to drilling. The January 2025 sale attracted no bids. The 2021 sale raised $16.5 million, mostly from a state agency. ANWR leasing is a fiscal fiction, not a budget solution.

Read the full report →

Want to Learn More?

For deeper background on the costs, consequences, and false promises of Arctic drilling, explore our additional resources. From legislative analysis to budget breakdowns, we lay out the facts and follow the money.