Over seven years ago, Congress mandated two federal oil and gas lease sales in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in their FY2018 budget reconciliation package—known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Now, two failed leases sales later, Congress is mandating we do it all over again.

The FY2025 reconciliation bill, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBBA), requires four new oil and gas lease sales in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR): the first 1 year after the bill’s enactment (7/4/2026), the second within 3 years (7/4/2028), the third within 5 years (7/4/2030), and the fourth within 7 years (7/4/2032). Each sale must offer no fewer than 400,000 acres — roughly a quarter of the 1.56-million-acres open to oil and gas development.

As in previous sales, half of all revenue generated from the leasing program from fiscal year (FY) 2025 to 2033 would be split evenly between the federal government and the State of Alaska. However, beginning in FY2034, that distribution would shift: 70% of the revenue would go to Alaska, with just 30% returning to the federal treasury.

The provision was first proposed by the House Natural Resources Committee, where it was approved and later passed by the House unchanged. The Senate slimmed down the section by:

• Removing a provision that would have required the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to immediately re-offer all parcels originally sold during the January 6, 2021 auction, except those where leases were issued and subsequently relinquished—effectively the 366,000 acres previously leased by the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority (AIDEA) and rescinded in 2024.
• Changing the revenue disbursement, which originally allocated 90% of the revenue to Alaska and 10% to the federal treasury, beginning in FY2035.
• Removing a provision that limited legal actions relating to lease sales and other actions relating to lease sales, except legal actions from leaseholders.
• Removing a provision requiring the BLM to approve oil and gas geophysical exploration applications within 30 days.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Congress’s nonpartisan scorekeeper, (preliminarily) estimated that mandated lease sales will generate $452 million in revenue for federal taxpayers over the next ten years, from FY2025 to 2034. While significantly lower that the CBO’s previous estimate of  $946 million—which was based on the House-passed language—budget watchdogs are skeptical.

Based on the 20-year average bid levels for state and federal leases on Alaska’s North Slope region, TCS now projects that—even under ideal conditions—future ANWR lease sales are likely to generate between just $3 and $30 million in federal revenue.

The two previous lease sales in the ANWR, as mandated in the TCJA, also fell far short of its almost $1 billion revenue projection. The first lease sale, held in January 2021, brought in just $16.5 million. Most leases were purchased by AIDEA, a public corporation of the State of Alaska. Only two private companies—Knik Arm Services LLC and Regenerate Alaska—participated, and both ultimately relinquished their leases. The second lease sale, held in January 2025, attracted no bidders and generated no revenue.

Given the abundance of evidence that federal lease sales in the Arctic Refuge will not generate meaningful revenue, oil and gas development in the region is a high risk, low reward prospect for taxpayers. It is also a loser for outdoor recreationists, hunters, and anglers, alongside the general public. We’ll be watching as the Department of the Interior moves forward with this new mandate and working to minimize any taxpayer losses to come.